Every contract the screen ever admitted, priced forward from the day it was chosen, with the reason it closed. Losers included — that is the point.
Outcomes
Every contract the screen admitted, priced forward from the day it was chosen and closed by the evaluation spec's rules (stop-loss, thesis break, time stop, expiry). Peak is shown beside the close because a long option can be up sharply mid-life and still close at a loss. pct_change is mid-to-mid, the measure of the screen's signal; pct_change_real is ask-to-bid — buy the offer, sell the bid — the pessimistic bracket on a real fill, and the number to quote.
all admitted — callouts: 17 · with a price series: 17 · median pct change: 0 · median pct change real: -0.0263 · median peak pct: 0 · share positive: 0.471 · share positive real: 0.412 · still open: 15
delivered only — callouts: 15 · with a price series: 15 · median pct change: 0 · median pct change real: -0.0263 · median peak pct: 0 · share positive: 0.467 · share positive real: 0.467 · still open: 13
| run_date | epoch | thesis_id | underlying | occ_symbol | direction | entry_mid | latest_mid | pct_change | pct_change_real | peak_pct | days_held | status | close_date |
|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00081500 | bear | 0.685 | 0.335 | -0.5109 | -0.5217 | 0 | 4 | stopped_loss | 2026-08-07 |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00083000 | bear | 1.35 | 1.24 | -0.0815 | -0.0956 | 0 | 7 | open | - |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00082500 | bear | 1.04 | 0.94 | -0.0962 | -0.1143 | 0 | 7 | open | - |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00082000 | bear | 0.82 | 0.735 | -0.1037 | -0.1205 | 0 | 7 | open | - |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260904P00081000 | bear | 0.74 | 0.58 | -0.2162 | -0.2667 | 0 | 7 | open | - |
| 2026-08-03 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260904P00082000 | bear | 1.08 | 0.98 | -0.0926 | -0.1441 | 0 | 7 | open | - |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00083000 | bear | 0.855 | 1.24 | 0.4503 | 0.4302 | 0.4503 | 6 | open | - |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00082500 | bear | 0.685 | 0.94 | 0.3723 | 0.3478 | 0.3723 | 6 | open | - |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00083500 | bear | 1.16 | 1.65 | 0.4224 | 0.3932 | 0.4224 | 6 | open | - |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260828P00082000 | bear | 0.475 | 0.735 | 0.5474 | 0.5208 | 0.5474 | 6 | open | - |
| 2026-08-04 | 0 | TLT-bear-2026-08-03 | TLT | TLT260904P00082000 | bear | 0.68 | 0.98 | 0.4412 | 0.3768 | 0.4412 | 6 | open | - |
| 2026-08-07 | 1 | UBER-bear-2026-08-07 | UBER | UBER260918P00075000 | bear | 3.21 | 2.015 | -0.3723 | -0.4098 | 0 | 3 | thesis_break | 2026-08-10 |
| 2026-08-07 | 1 | ANET-bull-2026-08-07 | ANET | ANET260918C00200000 | bull | 9.895 | 10.65 | 0.0768 | 0.0298 | 0.0768 | 3 | open | - |
| 2026-08-07 | 1 | ANET-bull-2026-08-07 | ANET | ANET260918C00190000 | bull | 13.7 | 15.01 | 0.0953 | 0.0362 | 0.0953 | 3 | open | - |
| 2026-08-07 | 1 | ANET-bull-2026-08-07 | ANET | ANET260918C00210000 | bull | 6.79 | 7.345 | 0.0817 | -0.0072 | 0.0817 | 3 | open | - |
| 2026-08-10 | 1 | TTWO-bull-2026-08-10 | TTWO | TTWO260918C00250000 | bull | 17.24 | 17.24 | 0 | -0.0263 | 0 | 0 | open | - |
| 2026-08-10 | 1 | TTWO-bull-2026-08-10 | TTWO | TTWO260918C00260000 | bull | 12.23 | 12.23 | 0 | -0.0556 | 0 | 0 | open | - |
Evaluation scoreboard
One row per thesis — correlated callouts on one underlying count once. Epoch 0 rows predate the expiration fix and are excluded from the verdict. Rule freeze ends 2026-10-02.
1 of the minimum 20 Epoch-1 theses closed — insufficient data, no verdict yet (evaluation spec §6).
B1 (rightmost column) is the underlying's own signed return over the same window. B2, liquidity-only random contracts tracked the same way (Epoch 1): draw dates: 2 · contracts: 10 · median of date medians: 0.0134 · median of date medians real: -0.1059 · share positive: 0.3 · closed: 0
data as of 2026-08-10 · price bars lag 2 days by design · research only — this system never trades